The Olympic opening ceremonies yesterday were extraordinary. Bravo Paris!
If it seems like everyone around you has COVID now, or a “summer cold” or “allergies”, it is because we are in a large wave being caused by KP.3. Its descendant KP.3.1.1 is even more immune evasive because of its S31 deletion and this will probably give another boost to COVID cases in the ongoing COVID wave. According to JP Weiland, KP.3.1.1 will become dominant in the United States around August 6th, and this should push upwards on the Midwest and Northeast, where case levels are still moderate.
There are presently about 760,000 to 900,000 new COVID infections each day, with 1 in every 44 people in the US infected now. The ratio is higher in the West where 1 in every 26 people is infected now and the South where 1 in every 29 people is infected.
Test positivity is up, as are emergency department visits for COVID nationally. It looks like California and Florida emergency department visits are starting to peak for this wave, but they are at near 12 month highs. Of course, hitting the peak still means that half of the cases from this wave will be happening soon. COVID transmission is expected to continue to be high for at least another 4 to 6 weeks depending on location.
According to Sara Anne Willette’s dashboard, there are Excessively High levels of SARS-2 in wastewater in Oregon and Florida, followed by Very High in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Utah, Wyoming, Washington state and California.
CDC (NWSS) Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels as of July 27, 2024 from
Excessive levels of SARS-2 in wastewater in Oregon and Florida, followed by Very High in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Utah, Wyoming, Washington state and California
From: Sara Anne Willette https://iowacovid19tracker.org/
Acute COVID infections, General COVID info
A Pfizer sponsored study shows that Paxlovid post-exposure prophylaxis given for 5 days or for 10 days after exposure did NOT significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in people exposed to an infected family member. 2736 adults participated in the study.
COVID and heart attacks
A new study examined the link between COVID-19 infection and the increased risk of heart attack (also known as acute myocardial infarction or AMI). Using advanced computational analysis, researchers identified genes that are abnormally expressed in both COVID-19 and AMI patients. They found 21 common genes that were dysregulated (either increased or decreased) in both conditions that are involved in inflammation and immune response. The endothelial cells that line blood vessels were especially sensitive to excess inflammation from TNF and IL-17 signaling pathways. Five key genes (IL1B, CXCL8, CTNNB1, FOS, PTGS2) play crucial roles in this inflammatory process and contribute to endothelial dysfunction and to atherosclerosis. These genes may be useful as biomarkers or therapeutic targets.
COVID prevention
Poor air quality and ventilation contributed greatly to the spread of COVID. A new review article shows that in order to reduce the risk of infection, we need better building design and improved ventilation, including monitoring of indoor air quality. Here are the 7 key lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the reduction of viral loads through ventilation in the indoor environment.
Fig. 5. Impact of COVID-19 on cognitive performance across rates of change in Brain Age Gap (BAG=difference between estimated brain age and chronological age)
Long COVID orthostatic intolerance issues appear to be affecting or are being affected by the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and GH which is made in the pituitary gland as well. Other studies have shown low cortisol levels in Long COVID suggesting that Long COVID somehow negatively affects the function of the pituitary and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. A group from Spain proposed a possible theory that there could be autoantibodies to the pituitary gland in Long COVID, but this has not been proven.
This week, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly wrote a great review of Long COVID and other new chronic medical conditions that happen after COVID infection. He discussed research findings such as long term changes in immune responses that are linked to the original COVID infection. He also talked about some possible causes of Long COVID including viral persistence and autoantibodies.
The NIH announced that RECOVER finally plans to do clinical trials on treatments for Long COVID. It is therefore very important that the CURE ID study on Long COVID gets enough people to help guide the NIH as to what treatments to try. So far, only 325 people with Long COVID have responded on the CURE ID website, but they need at least 1,000. If you or someone you know has Long COVID, please go to https://cure.ncats.io/home to let the NIH know which treatments worked and which did not. The survey does not need to be filled out all at one time.
This week, Colorado reported 2 more human cases of H5N1 avian flu, increasing the total cases in Colorado to 10 (9 related to chicken farms, 1 from a dairy farm). The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) started a new H5N1 dashboard where they will post the number of H5N1 cases twice weekly. Colorado also plans to add mandatory weekly testing of milk.
A new, open source platform called Precious3GPT is available for aging research and drug discovery.
Other news
Lymphatic drainage is important for removing waste and toxins from tissues, and in the brain, it relies on lymphatic vessels in the meninges and on the recently discovered glymphatic system that works with brain glial cells. Glial cells support neurons by providing nutrients and by helping with repair after injury. The lymphatic-glymphatic systems work together to circulate cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), clear waste products, and maintain immune surveillance. This “brainwashing” is crucial for brain health and knowledge of this system may help create new treatments for brain diseases.
This week, Boar's Head foods recalled over 200,000 pounds of deli-sliced meats that were sliced on the same line as listeria contaminated liverwurst at a Virginia plant. This recall applies to meats sliced at deli counters, not prepackaged products.
Eleven time Olympic medalist and mom of two kids Allyson Felix wanted to support athlete moms, so she launched the first-ever Olympic Village nursery for Paris 2024. Felix also recently received a $20 million grant from the Melinda French Gates Foundation to support Black maternal health.
NASA’s Curiosity 1-ton rover drove over a rock on Mars and broke it open to find yellowish-green crystals of pure sulfur inside. This is the first time that sulfur has been found on the red planet.
CDC (NWSS) Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels as of July 27, 2024
Excessive levels of SARS-2 in wastewater in Oregon and Florida, followed by Very High in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Utah, Wyoming, Washington state and California
Wastewater SCAN SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater
Hospitalizations in the states that are still reporting. Through 7/20/24.
Infections flat this week after weeks of increases. This may or may not be the absolute peak, as KP.3.1.1 will become dominant in the first week of August.
760,000 new infections/day
1 in every 44 people currently infected
37% higher than 12 month avg.
Declines in the West, but increases in the Midwest and South. Estimated ratio of people currently infected by region:
Midwest: 1 in 54
South: 1 in 29
Northest: 1 in 77
West: 1 in 26
KP.3.1.1 with S:31 deletion is growing at about 60% per week over all other KP.3s in America and abroad. Dominance in the US is expected around August 6th, and should push upwards on the Midwest and Northeast, where numbers are still moderate.
KP.3.1.1 may also slow the declines in the West and South in August. As @LongDesertTrain has mentioned a number of times, this deletion adds a glycan to the spike, increasing immune evasion.
Both California and Florida are peaking at near 12 month highs. The good news is they should start to decline soon, but there is a lot of transmission happening at the moment.
When these peaks happen, only about half of the infections of the total wave have already happened. Transmission will remain high for probably the next month, or maybe a bit longer with KP.3.1.1 incoming.
Low/moderate transmission in parts of the midwest include Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, but increasing. 3x what they were in early June.
Cases rising, hospitalizations rising, positivity at 15.9%
Olympics
7/24/24 CBS: Paris Olympics hit by early COVID cases, but organizers don't seem worried by risk of major outbreak https://buff.ly/3Yl312W
“National team chief Anna Meares confirmed Wednesday that five of Australia's women's water polo players had tested positive for COVID-19… Several Belgian athletes delayed their departure for Paris after receiving positive tests. The French Judo Federation had previously cut short its men's team's pre-Olympic training camp after a participant was diagnosed with COVID-19, and French soccer player Selma Bacha and track-and-field athlete Cyréna Samba-Mylena have also tested positive… But organizers appear relatively unfazed… Face masks are not required inside the Olympic Village, but hand sanitizer is available in its clinics and restaurants.” via Violet Blue
7/27/24 ESPN: Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis fighting illness before Olympics basketball opener https://buff.ly/3LE9nTr
Acute COVID infections, General COVID info
7/17/24 NEJM (Pfizer study): Oral Nirmatrelvir–Ritonavir (Paxlovid) as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 https://buff.ly/4bYkzoz
Paxlovid post-exposure prophylaxis given for 5 days or for 10 days after exposure did NOT significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in people exposed to an infected family member.
Five days of Paxlovid reduced relative risk of SARS-2 infection by 29.8% (P = 0.17) and ten days of Paxlovid reduced COVID infection as compared to placebo by 35.5% (P=0.12), but this was not statistically significant.
“Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection developed by day 14 in 17 of 844 participants (2.0%) in the 5-day nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group, 16 of 830 participants (1.9%) in the 10-day nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group, and 26 of 840 participants (3.1%) in the placebo group.”
8/2024 American Heart Journal Plus: Exploring the underlying molecular mechanisms of acute myocardial infarction after SARS-CoV-2 infection https://buff.ly/3A54gc8
Highlights
COVID-19 patients with highly activated inflammatory response are susceptible to acute myocardial infarction (AMI).
The endothelial cell response to cytokine stimulus is essential in COVID-19 and AMI.
TNF and interleukin-17 signaling pathways are central to the mechanism.
IL1B, CXCL8, CTNNB1, FOS and PTGS2 hold promise as biomarkers or therapeutic targets.
A new study examined the link between COVID-19 infection and the increased risk of heart attack (acute myocardial infarction or AMI).
They found 21 common genes that are dysregulated (either increased or decreased) in both conditions and are involved in inflammation and immune response.
Antiviral treatments
7/25/24 Science: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for ventilation and indoor air qualityhttps://buff.ly/3LF2AZx
Poor air quality and ventilation contributed greatly to the spread of COVID. In order to reduce the risk of infection, we need better building design and improved ventilation including monitoring of indoor air quality.
Fig. 1. Key findings and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the reduction viral loads through ventilation in the indoor environment.
7/24/24 MedRxiV (U Nottingham): Brains Under Stress: Unravelling the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Brain Ageing https://buff.ly/4cTSzDH
Using longitudinal brain MRIs from the UK Biobank, researchers found that the pandemic significantly increased brain aging. Part of this was due to stress from the pandemic itself. But, accelerated brain aging associated with reduced cognitive ability was seen only in people who had been infected with COVID.
Red (G3): Pandemic times, + COVID infection
Green (G4): Pandemic times, No COVID infection
Blue (G2): Pre-pandemic control group
Brain Age Gap (BAG=difference between estimated brain age and chronological age)
7/24/24 Nature: Clinical and endocrine features of orthostatic intolerance detected in patients with long COVID https://buff.ly/3y62R4L
Serum cortisol levels in the 10 minute standing test (ST) positive patients aged over 20 years were higher and growth hormone (GH) levels in the patients under 20 years of age were lower than those in the ST-negative group.
Limitation: OI was examined only by an active standing test, and tests were therefore not performed in patients with severe long COVID in this study.
A recent study further demonstrated that serum cortisol levels were significantly lowered despite inappropriately low levels of ACTH in patients with severe long COVID, indicating the possibly of impaired function in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis.
7/18/24 The Conversation (Z. Al-Aly): Long COVID puzzle pieces are falling into place – the picture is unsettling https://buff.ly/3WuWLUI
A great review from Ziyad Al-Aly looking at Long COVID and other new medical conditions that result from often a mild COVID infection years later. He discusses research including that there can be changes in immune responses that are linked to the original COVID infection. He also discusses some possible causes of Long COVID including viral persistence and autoantibodies.
Dr. Al-Aly also speaks about misinformation that is being propagated in the public. "COVID-19 infections continue to outnumber flu cases and lead to more hospitalization and death than the flu. COVID-19 also leads to more serious long-term health problems. Trivializing COVID-19 as an inconsequential cold or equating it with the flu does not align with reality."
7/26/24 AP: Recall of Boar's Head deli meats announced during investigation of listeria outbreak https://buff.ly/3WjiEoR
Boar's Head is recalling over 200,000 pounds of deli-sliced meats that were sliced on the same line as listeria contaminated liverwurst at a Virginia plant. This recall applies to meats sliced at deli counters, not prepackaged products.
7/12/24 NBC: Allyson Felix launches first-ever Olympic Village nursery for Paris 2024 https://buff.ly/3W4edxT
The 11 time Olympic medalist and mom of two kids wanted to support athlete moms. How cool!
Felix also recently received a $20 million grant from the Melinda French Gates Foundation to support Black maternal health.
7/20/24 CNN: NASA’s Curiosity rover makes its ‘most unexpected’ find on Mars https://buff.ly/46e2hhH
The 1-ton rover drove over a rock and broke it open to find yellowish-green crystals of pure sulfur which has never been seen before on Mars.
Thank you for reminding us that the downward side of a wave includes about as much infection/transmission as the upward side. There seems to be a logic fallacy taking place in mainstream reporting and the public's view of peaks, as if transmission disappears.
Thank you for your very good work!
Thank you for reminding us that the downward side of a wave includes about as much infection/transmission as the upward side. There seems to be a logic fallacy taking place in mainstream reporting and the public's view of peaks, as if transmission disappears.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯